Like | Smile

What does it means when a girl like or smiles at you. Possibly things can go topsy-turvy or does it leads to some kind of pleasurable phenomenon. But then what next ? How do you take the next step. I was reading over this and came across one analytically bent solution to it. Being an analyst and closer  to number, this seems so good.

It's simple. Probably if you guys have a had a time with probability this will be easy  to be deciphered. Just use Bayes' theorem. The probability she likes you is

is what you want to know - the probability she likes you given the fact that she smiles at you. is the probability that she will smile given that she sees someone she likes.

is the probability that she likes a random person.

is the probability that she will smile at a random person.

For example, suppose she just smiles at everyone. Then intuition says that fact that she smiles at you doesn't mean anything one way or another.

Indeed, and , and we have

meaning that knowing that she smiles at you doesn't change anything. At the other extreme, suppose she smiles at everyone she likes, and only those she likes. Then

  and . 

Then we have

and she is certain to like you. In the intermediate case, what you need to do is find the ratio of odds of smiling at people she likes to smiles in general, multiply by the percentage of people she likes, and there is your answer. The more she smiles in general, the lower the chance she likes you. The more she smiles at people she likes, the better the chance. And of course the more people she likes, the better your chances are.

Of course, how to actually determine these values is still a mystery.